A Tragic Dearth...

NOAA

"Hurricane prediction is by no means a perfect science. Supercomputers crunch vast amounts of data to model a hurricane’s path, taking information from sensors around the world, including balloons, aircraft, ships, and satellites, but it’s a patchwork collection at best. And there’s a practical limit to how much data the models can consider—a simulation that takes more time to calculate than the storm takes to advance isn’t very practical.

"That’s why hurricane forecasts aren’t perfect. But they keep getting better. Five years ago the two-to-three-day forecast of Hurricane Rita’s path showed it hitting Houston; hundreds of thousands of people fled in a chaotic evacuation that turned out not to be necessary—Rita missed Houston entirely.

"But today, the 48-hour forecast of a hurricane’s track is as good as the 24-hour forecast was 10 years ago—and that’s pretty good. Researchers are also starting to get a handle on predicting the intensity of hurricanes—that’s something they had very little skill at ten years ago. Operational models, the ones used for day-to-day weather forecasting have gotten better; research models are taking in data they’ve heretofore only dreamed of getting. And all this prediction capability is being thrown at Hurricane Irene."

To quote the holographic doctor in Star Trek Voyager: "Divine intervention is highly unlikely."

Not that I'm against any additional Divine help, but unrelated earthquakes and hurricanes should not be joke material. The deaths of 21 people and millions without power is not comedic. There are real-world problems to solve, one of which is our national power grid, aged and in need of redesign with climate change at the forefront in consideration. It can understandably, create needed jobs in infrastructure projects.

My father used to say: "It's better to have and not need, than to need and not have."

Even though the predictive models have gotten better, nothing beats preparation and good old, "common sense." The dearth of it is a tragicomedy.

IEEE Spectrum: Predicting Irene